The Bloodbath in PA

By my count, 197 of 228 possible incumbents (dont quote me, this is top of the head math, calculated, but dont quote me) wanted to keep their seats in the bloated 253-member Pennsylvania General Assembly. (How about a Constitutional Convention cutting that number in half - could save taxpayers millions in salaries for members and staff.)

Seventeen failed, 17 incumbent losses - including the top two Senate leaders, and minor House D leader and 5 committee chairmen from 3 R and 2 D. This is a slaughter of the powers that be. How can the newbies coming in, this rabble, vote for the existing leaders that lead them on this scary road that should not have been traveled, and was actually backtracked, but the leaves had already been trodden black...

What was 31 open seats, including a special election in the Philly area that flipped from R to D is now 47 - 42 House seats open and 5 Senate seats open, all 5 GOP. The margin in the Senate is a bloated 29-21 with the special election capturing one, and to make any headway to 25-25 parity, the Ds need to focus on the seats they can win.

In the House, the recapitulation is 109-94, Ds recently flipping a Pittsburgh seat and retaining a Philly seat in a special, 42 incumbents either retired voluntarily or were retired at the ballot box by a pissed off 22 percent of the electorate that bother to show up, a motivated core of voters out to exercise their Democratic rights to term limit their members by voting them out. Hundreds of years of legislative experience, and some very nice people, got their walking papers.

The Rs have more seats, and thus more to defend, and several seats are vulnerable to flippitation, having nominated in the primary an overly conservative person perhaps, who might not succeed in the general election. Some of these R-held seats lean liberal and vice versa. If I were the gov, that's where I'd pour in the money for the coattails, open seats and flippitation-prone areas.

This gov, the former philly mayor, was selfish in 2002, not donating to coattail races, and the R margin in the Legisalture actually INCREASED...he spent wildly in the primary as did now Senate candidate Casey, and both went negative, holding turnout to 25 percent - negative campaigning is known to drive down turnout.

Anyway, negative campaigning was cited in the Lebanon-based Senate seat that went with the opponent 2-1, despite 6-7 figures being spent by the incumbent, and a nasty last-minute attack ad was a turnoff to many teevee watchers.

Two seats in Pitsburgh could flip, as well as the requisite handful or so in the southeast, which is trending blue state in regional support for Rendell and Kerry in past even year elections, allowing the state to trend D in the big races, but not for Congress or state capitol races, while still splitting ticket and keeping in a dominantly GOP General Assembly and Congressional delegation. This trend may be reaching closure.

The NYTimes today runs an article about a conservative backlash, big spending government ousting incumbents, a band of brothers and sisters called Operation Clean Sweep sending six into the fray to knock off incumbents include a still breast-feeding 21 year old college student, barely old enough to drink, let alone vote, but vote he did, with denero and expertise from conservative kingmaker wannabe Jeff Coleman and his cronies who want to turn this into a religious enclave of some sort for righties...well, brother, this liberal Republican - and that is not an oxymoron - is not gonna trend that way, no way, so you watch it in November, the backlash commeth from the left - of your own part and the left of the other, for the Ds, perhaps reviled as the left hand of god, better get their act together, lest this opportunity slip through their fingies.

Even speculation that it might be better for Ds NOT to win, we're talking Congress here, to just go ahead and let the GOP wallow in misery for another two years to give mo to the 2008 presidential candidate. Dont do it, gain ground.

Anyway, I digress. Suffice it to say, it is NICE? to see some new faces in the fray, but who exactly is this rabble? Car salesmen and college students? Six Clean Sweepers took out incumbents and 23 made it from the band of 81 intendeds, with at least two independents looking for ballot room, but hey, what do I know? 25 percent seems to be the number of the moment...not bad, but please let fall turnout be high, and DONT sweep out the good legislators we have just to use the broom. They aren't all villains. Some actually go Hburg to legislate and deal in policy, not feather some nest in some fiefdom. Keep that in mind kiddies. Get out and vote.