Tuesday, February 21, 2012

The Insanity that Would Be: A Santorum Presidency

Just when you thought the Christian Right could get any more wrong, Rick Santorum wins two midwestern primaries in a row. So Gingrich seems to win their vote as a Southern Son, edging out the former Pennsylvanian.

Call me insane but the day Tricky Rick wins the nomination is the day I defect to Mexico. If he wins the presidency I will eat my entire baseball cap collection, then move to Venezuela.

Mitt, with all his cash, and Gingrich with his shiny new $10 million coin can't do better than Mr. Shoestring whose only attribute is a midwestern horse's face. It is not my vote or my thinly organized and silent brethren (and pro-choice sisterdhood) that will win any candidate in the GOP an election, it is the evangelicals who seem to be moving from vocal minority tea baggers to entrenched plurality moving to near majority. There is no room for a socially liberal GOPer like me any more.

Call me a RINO as some have, but I can't listen to Santroum's tripe pandering to the intolerant. I need to hear something that makes sense. I am guessing Obama can beat any of these stooges.

So it's 105-71-29 with 1,000+ more delegates needed to approach the
tipping point. Pennsylvania might still be relevant with its late April Primary. We might actually have 4 candidates on the ballot.

For more, go to the liberal rag I still think trumps Fox News, but I may stand alone in this belief among Republicans: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

We shall see what happens next Tuesday. It would be a critical loss for Romney to lose one of his home states, his birth state, the state his dad ran.  Not fatal, not mortal, but like losing a pinky.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Don't Tarry Toward the Exit Gov. Perry

Whenever a candidate drops out of a political race and endorses another candidate immediately, it makes you wonder about the staging and timing of the announcement.
Set just two days before voting in SC, one can only wonder how long behind-the-scene negotiations have been going on.  Who is sharing what polling info. These things don't occur by happenstance of course because there are no coincidences in politics.

So Perry's voters are now Newt's as it were, if he were free to give them. Or they are free to go with the arch conservative Santorum, who somehow manages to cling by manicured fingernails to the leaders' board behind the moderate Morman and wherever Ron PAul is on the dance card.

What this will mean is a temporarily stronger Tea Party and ultraconservative wing of the GOP's tenuous non-coalition.  Sure, you have to lean right in the primaries, if you're a fringe candidate especially, but Romney has stayed the course for more than four years now running against Obama more than against his GOP rivals from the get go. So say you have the GOP basically divided into thirds, 1/3 moderate, 1/3 libertarian (in Ron Paul's dreams) and 1/3 conservative/Christian right. Romney gets more than his third mostly from Paul, probably approaching 45% and the Gingrichians and Santorumites split what remains that Paul's hardcore drones don't lock down.

I am dubious that strategy of conservative-backed candidates consolidating their supporters behind one ubercandidate to oppose the moderate wing will prevail.  Eventually Santorum will have to fold his support in with Newt and/or Paul if he is as arrogant as I think it is, it may mean he holds out until the PA primary in three months. The Non-Mittophiles will likely need to muster every vote turning out to make a statement, but not a winning statement.  Eventually Romney will get more than a plurality and get majority percentage wins, but not until another candidate drops out probably.

In order to contest with Obama in the fall, it might be wiser to be running against him all along.

Ja66erwock

Monday, January 16, 2012

And then there were 5. How many were there?

So even after posting a 3rd place in New Hampshire, Huntsman is said to be bowing out of the presidential race today. Really, you mean UTAH will not yet have its first president?

Meanwhile Santorum is telling South Carolina that Romney can't beat Obama. And Tricky Rick can?? He couldn't even beat Casey Junior.

But this is a different year and now Ricky Tricky Havey one percenter has a national platform to tout his ultraconservatism. He doesn't look so plastic Stretch Armstrongy at times, but when you stop to listen to what he's actually saying most people in their right mind should start to cringe, perhaps even puke.

What will Huntsman say, bipartisanship is dead, you want even work with the other party to make the word a better place, talk to Tricky Rick and you'll find this to be true. This from Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/16/us-usa-campaign-huntsman-idUSTRE80F03G20120116?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71

Remove one of the faces from the sand pantheon of available candidates:

Janet Blackmon Morgan/MCT
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/la-pn-huntsman-wipes-history-of-romney-attacks-20120116,0,4931075.story

We'ss see which of the final 5 is still talking after next week.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Post-NH: Newt and Tricky Rick: That's What It's All About

So why was the headline of the Huffington Post after Ronney's very expected win in NH NOT about Romney, but about Ron Paul's silver medal?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/ron-paul-new-hampshire-primary-results-2012_n_1195647.html

Well perhaps that was because it wasn't former PA Sen. Rick Santorum or former House Speaker Newt (who tied for 4th out of the money) or the other guy from Utah (will Gov. Huntsman ever realize the 100-1 long shot of America electing a president from Utah, despite his show in this horse race?).


Jan 10, 2012 (100% of precincts reporting)

Mitt Romney 97,532 39.3%
Ron Paul 56,848 22.9%
Jon Huntsman 41,945 16.9%
Newt Gingrich 23,411 9.4%
Rick Santorum 23,362 9.4%
Rick Perry
1,766
0.7%
Michele Bachmann
349
0.1%
Other
3,272
1.3%
I wonder, when you have these vanity campaigns like Santorum's, what is really being angled for - is it to have their voice heard in th epolitical discourse, is it their love affair with the crowd and addictiong to camera or is it their quest to have a biting new commentary show on Fox News show to air after Huckabee?
 
It can't be a larger post-political career consulting contract or more nugatory but lucrative corporate board appointments, theses are always there it seems for ex-politicos?  So are they just so enamored with blathering on and spouting off about their wonderful ideas, so they feel compelled to keep running for offices just to have more fame and more glory and more self-gratification in the form of supporters giving them money to throw away on a lost cause? 

I mean c'mon, anyone who lives in PA has got to remember that former Sen. Santorum became 'former' when he disgracefully could not beat then-Auditor General Robert. P. "Mr. Invisible" Casey Jr. even though he ran one of the stealthiest campaigns ever for a U.S. Senate seat.

Bloggers and capitol reporters alike marveled 5.5 years ago at the more than 20,000 undervotes in the 2006 primary when Lynn Swann ran for governor.  (Who knows what #88 was angling for? The powers that be could have set him up with a nice seat in Congress, but he declined.)

I was one of those Swann-Santorum undervoters. Call me a Liberal-Republican or RINO or smart, but I just couldn't vote for Mr. Conservative so anti-abortion he and his wife decided to go through the trauma of delivering a stillborn child rather than cut the pregnancy short.

I don't usually reveal how I vote, but my vote in this case was a protest against ultraconservatism to a fault. I wanted to vote for none of the above, but in the primary there was only one above.  Gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann polled 21,706 more votes than then-incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum earned despite neither candidate having an contested primary. People didn't apathetically stay home, they went and just didn't push that button or pull that lever next to Tricky Rick's name.

I guess 5 years flying in a stealth teflon under-the-radar logoed bus makes Santorum think the smell of that undervote is a little less fishy. Add to that the stench of the huge upset in the General Election when he, the incumbent, lost by 708,206 votes, 41.3% to 58.7% to Mr. Invisible Casey. OK, that was a landslide year for Democrats in Congress, but all but us Pennsylvanians seem to forget how unpoplar Santorum was in his home state - of Virginia - just a few years ago.

<>
CandidateVotesPercent
CASEY, BOB JR (DEM)
2,392,98458.7%
SANTORUM, RICK (REP)
1,684,77841.3%

You must remember, Casey ran a campaign that had him literally doing as few public appearances, press conferences or debates as possible so Santorum would have nothing to react to and so that Casey would not screw up a 10-point advantage he enjoyed throughout most of the campaign.

Now, after setting up camp in Iowa and South Carolina, Tricky Rick thinks he can pull the shroud of Turin over the eyes of the GOPers in the country - or at least those in Iowa and South Carolina and not quite 10% of NH. Do these voters know anything about him except that he has pretty plastic hair, painted-on smile and says a bunch of wacky stuff?

Think of it, he couldn't win in his own (former) fairly conservative though lately blue leaning home turf, now he wants the nation to warm to his right wing philosophies?

Don't be duped by the perma-smile. If you want your daughters living in an America where all females will be required to give birth 5 or 6 times, be denied contraception and the right to a safe abortion in cases of rape and incest, and where all your sons will be required to kill large and small furry animals alike with their government-issued firearms, then go for it. That is not the kind of liberty I expect Americans want.

If Santorum makes it onto the PA primary ballot on April 24 (which I am guessing he will just because he used to live here), which is one of the last in the nation and in 2008 only include the top tier candidate (McCain, but not Romney) and a couple rogues (Grassroots Paul and Host Huckabee). Most people also forget that Hillary beat Barrack in 2008, 54.6 to 45.4 and won only 8 counties, including my home county, Dauphin the seat of the state capitol.
 Pennsylvania Primary 2008.PNG

If Sanrtom is the nominee, Obama wins for sure. If for some reason he wins, I will sell everything, move to Mexico, Chile or one of the closest neo-fascist regimes and become an ex-par because as a non-god-fearing Americans, my ilk would no longer be welcome here.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Review

Went to see Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for $7.50 at the Regal 14 matinee last Friday with two acquaintances. The movie is based on the Swedish version of the first Stieg Larrson book of the trilogy. Larrson died of a heart attack at the age of 50 in 2004. The manuscripts were published posthumously.

It was a guilty pleasure to see afternoon matinee on a weekday. I was blown away. The action sequences, the raciness of some of the sex scenes, the eerieness of the music and characters. All were unexpected, especially seeing the new James Bond, Daniel Craig, playing a mild-mannered (at first) and non-gun-wielding journalist caught up in an investigation of a child's disappearance years earlier that then uncovered a series of serial killings linked to Swedish a fascist sympathizer.

I had not read the books - yet - or seen the Swedish language subtitled movie. My daughter had borrowed the trilogy a year ago and I haven't seen them since. My brother sent them to me a couple years ago, but I have a long book list. My daughter is 17 and has seen the movie, rated R, but the book must also have been R-rated and as racy. Makes me wonder what she thought of what she read. She is old enough to get into the movie without an adult accompanying, not that this is a movie I would feel comfortable watching with my 17-year old girl. It's not Harry Potter.
Rooney Mara oozes angst-laden and possibly bipolar or borderline personality sensuality, yet works her diagnosis and computer genius to defeat her own demon social worker with deviousness and unrepentant vengeance, yet easily converts into a sexy blonde in later scenes where she sets up the downfall of the movie's corporate villian who burned Daniel Craig's character in a libel suit.

This is the American version of the poster without the pierced exposed nipple. The influence of the Christian right and religion forced American movie execs to cover up the image with the superimposed opening date. Why do the minority of prudish Americans have such influence on the mainstream media when they are not consumers of these products. Not don't ask don't tell. Don't look, don't complain. You don't hear about the Amish burning books. Why do we Americans have such problems with the female (or male) form and why is Europe more open to being open? Americans came to America for religious freedom and apparently the right to force feed us their gods. Worse yet, they believe they, the minority, have the right to tell other people what they can and can't do the sake of the collective morality. Get used to it. It's not going away, but fortunately Rick Santorum will. But I digress.

I was especially impressed with the soundtrack, so indicative of Trent Reznor's recent post-NIN work. The opening sequence starts with a remake of Immigrant Song, which contains Norse mythological references, sung by Karen O of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs, with instrumentation by Trent Reznor and collaborator Atticus Ross, who co-wrote the rest of the nonlyrical soundtrack. Trent could easily be nominated for his second Academy Award, not for the song, but the score. The song plays over the opening credits through a series of hypercloseups and bizarre images, setting the tone for this dark and very watchable move.

Monday, January 21, 2008

The Exit Test Test

Governments make many vain attempts to quantify what our children learn, but rarely do they actually come up with any ideas that fundamentally augment the nature of education in Pennsylvania, let alone America. They rail against throwing money at problems as governments incrementally grow larger every year, and net household incomes grow smaller.

Two significant developments regarding standardized testing recently caused me to do more that nod my head in consternation at the hypocrisy. First, the NCLB (No Child Left Behind) law was found by the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals (Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee) to be in violation of the constitution regarding its provision regarding unfunded mandates. Second, the State Board of Education passed a regulation that high school seniors by the year 2014 will have to pass a series of exit tests to prove that what they have learned in school passes what certain bureaucrats believe students need to go forth and conquer.

First, the NCLB...Those of us who have tracked unfunded mandates know that these arise when governments - usually federal and state - tell local school districts what they want as an end result of 12 years of schooling, but fail to provide adequate funding for that result to be achieved. It used to be that Pennsylvania's funding standard was to provide 50 percent state match, with local governments kicking in the other half of the effort, but in the past three decades or so, this state match has become woefully closer to 33 percent.

The federal government similarly, dangles its power of the purse - telling states they can access $x,000,000 in federal funding in exchange for meeting these criteria, or worse yet, demanding that states comply of face the penalty of the withholding of federal funds they are already receiving - to force compliance with what they feel is the best course of action from their potentates in the committee rooms in Washington, DC. But the criteria is necessarily so fundamentally unbtainable as to be a Catch 22 - NCLB states that 100 percent of students must pass a standardized test by some date certain in the future, which makes sense, only in that you can't pass a law called No Child Left Behind with a 90 percent compliance standard, in other words, acknowledging that a certain percentage of the student population will simply not be able to obtain this goal no matter how many laws or dollars are tossed at schools.

NEA estimates that nationwide, unfunded mandates to fulfill the requirements of NCLB amount to close to $70 billion, the GNP of a moderately sized nation.

More and more, such lures of federal money for compliance with federal law are something states are rejecting, in this case, with a court case, which the government can probably appeal all the way to the Supreme Court, if that highest court will accept the case.

It is every teacher's goal to provide the students in their charge with the education they need to go forth into the world and become productive citizens, and they know that a standardized test and being forced to teach to that test, is not the answer.

Now let's turn to point two, the state exit test. Fortunately, there is a regulatory process in place that does not simply entitle the State Board of Education to pass a regulation and have it go into effect immediately. Such suggestions first have to be vetted through the state House and Senate Education Committees, and then must pass muster before the Independent Regulatory Review Commission. During this process, regulations sometimes change or are withdrawn, but if a regulatory body gets so frustrated that it plunges forward, chances are some new reg will be on the books at some point, but not without a fight.

Once again, such an exit test will force teachers to teach to a test, because presumably, noncompliance with a reg will be accompanied by some sanction, i.e. some funding will be withheld until compliance is established.

So, teacher will end up spending more valuable classroom time teaching students to pass a test, and if I remember my matriculation, I, although a smart student, often did poorly on standardized tests because my forte was in essay writing and creative thinking, not in rote memorization.

Q: Standardized tests encourage students to:

A. Memorize facts only to forget them.
B. Learn facts, but fail to learn concepts like working as a team to achieve a goal, which can be applied to real-world situations in the workplace.
C. Think like everyone else, rather than thinking independently.
D. None of the Above
E. All of the Above.

I am not sayinf I know what the answer is: more federal and state standardize tests or educational anarchy, but maybe what we really need is a law that encourages No Parent to be Left Behind, and that doesn't place all of the responsibility on school systems and teachers to teach chidlren but demands compliance and participation by parents in their child's education.

Just try withholding money for noncompliance or requiring a standardized test to be taken by all parents that examines the adequacy of the state of parenting in the United states, and cuts tax refunds for noncompliance. We might just have a rebellion on our hands, but parenting as it relates to the education system is another topic for another day.

As always, your comments are welcome.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Booing Bonds

Ok, so when Bonds comes to the plate, the fans boo, but wait a second, are we talking baseball or inside baseball. Political bonds are about borrowing money with the state taxpayer's earnings - involuntarily donated - as the capital backing the investor risk. And the ones expropriating have the power, albeit collectively, to change the law to withdraw more from this endless bank account. Unless their representatives cry foul, or those who vote on Hall of Fame ballots refuse to induct on first ballot. Can you say strikeout? Well, no borrowing, not $500 million in RCAP, not $850 million for energy independence, not $40 million a year from a surcharge on electric bills to repay interest on the bonds, not borrowing against turnpike revenues, none of it is now law, and if you know what I'm talking about, then I pitty you. If you were paying lipservice to supporting more taxes, then I pity you more. If you spun your desire to earn less in your paycheck, I pity you double. In this one instance, I was glad to support the minority viewpoint, that taxes are bad, borrowing bad, especially in times of huge budget surplus...If you believe we can tax to prosperity, ok, we're prosperous as a nation, but me, personally, I don't take home enough of my government pay...and I'd rather keep the pennies that accumulate to dollars so I can keep eating my Hot Pockets for lunch. As far as Barry of the baseball Bonds, so close to the goal of 756? Well, pork, according to Jules in Pulp Fiction, "Pigs are filthy animals. I don't eat filthy animals. " Ah, pork, it eats its own feces and suffers from personality disorder, "But, a dog's got personality. Personality goes a long way." Well, Barry has perosnality too, and so does, dog's reverse, the devil being in details, and revile is not far from devil spelling-wise, which is what House members and sportswriters and fans due for taxes, and their boos tax Barry, but he keeps hitting, tax-free and steroid-free...and poor barry, well he's the goat for the allegations and the millions made with big flies (around the dung of his personality), but he's not the goat curse on the Cubs, or those PA young bucks, 27 Ds, 23 Rs, none of whom, the 50 House newbies, had to vote for a tax increase during this their first budget, but of course there was pork to be eaten at thr trough somewhere...nor did they vote to tax the future, and ther re-election chances. Out children, with borrrowing, borrowing and more borrowing, will be repaying these debts. I'm an environmentalist, but I opposed the $625 million for Growing Greener bonds that voter voted for on the ballot, and in fact the Persian Gulf war vet bond issue...Why? Because for the privilege of spending that money now costs us more in the long haul, the GGI bonds cost maybe $1-1.2 billion to repay, a 52% premium when I did the math, to repay the interest on the bonds (for those that can afford to invest in them, a secure asset for retirement) that our children will be servicing with their taxes when they grow up and become taxpayers, assuming they don't move to some warm state, taking our electoral college votes and tax dollars with them. But that is another issue, this Brain Drain, for another day. No new taxes, borrowing and not so much spending. I'd say that's not so bad a deal for taxpayers. And Rendell can somehow claim victory too.